US could see more Venezuelan asylum seekers if Maduro holds onto disputed election win

(TND) — Large-scale Venezuelan emigration could get even worse after President Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner of his country's disputed election, according to experts.

If Maduro maintains his grasp on power, desperate Venezuelans could increasingly seek better lives in the U.S. and elsewhere in the region.

Maduro’s National Electoral Council declared him the winner of this weekend’s presidential election, but the opposition has also claimed victory.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others on the world stage have cast doubt on the legitimacy of Maduro’s win.

Maduro has been in power for over a decade now, and his questionable victory Sunday could entrench him in office for another six years.

But economic conditions have deteriorated under Maduro’s rule, leading nearly 8 million Venezuelans to flee the country of about 30 million people over the last 10 years.

“I do think that if Madura does not change the conditions in Venezuela, we might see many more migrants leave the country,” Kevin R. Johnson, an expert in immigration law and policy at UC Davis, said via email on Monday. “There have been reports that up to one third of the population could leave. This could have impacts on nations in the Western Hemisphere, including the United States.”

Ernesto Sagás, an expert in Latin American politics who teaches at Colorado State University, said life has grown difficult in Venezuela.

“It is a rich country inhabited by poor people,” Sagás said. “This is the Venezuelan paradox.”

Venezuela has historically been one of the wealthier nations in Latin America, sitting atop massive oil reserves and chock full of natural resources.

But Sagás said Maduro and his authoritarian socialist policies have badly mismanaged the economy.

Hyperinflation soared past 130,000%, according to The Associated Press.

And many Venezuelans earn under $200 a month, the AP reports.

Sagás said Venezuela is among the least free countries in the region.

And he said the collapse of the economy has led to a rise in crime.

Venezuelans have largely abandoned using their own currency, turning to the U.S. dollar for most transactions, he said.

Colombia has mostly bore the brunt of Venezuelan migration, Sagás said.

Peru, Ecuador and Chile have also seen Venezuelans fleeing their homes.

“And, of course, many of them try to make the long trek to the U.S.-Mexico border and come into the U.S. and request political asylum,” he said.

Sagás said the mass Venezuelan emigration is an ongoing trend that will only get worse if Maduro stays in office.

“Because this is seen as the last best opportunity that the opposition had to topple Maduro,” he said.

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council announced that Maduro won Sunday’s election with 51% of the vote, compared to 44% of the vote for opposition candidate Edmundo González.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric Font called those results “difficult to believe” in a social media post written in Spanish.

And European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wrote on X that the will of Venezuelan voters “must be respected. Ensuring full transparency in the electoral process, including detailed counting of votes and access to voting records at polling stations, is vital.”

Sagás, too, questioned the legitimacy of Maduro’s victory.

He said the election was not free, fair or transparent.

Popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was prevented from running against Maduro herself on a technical ruling from the Maduro-controlled government, Sagás said.

“Besides their position to the regime, people love her on a very personal, intimate level,” Sagás said of the opposition leader.

González ran because Machado and Machado’s first choice to replace her were blocked from running.

“Maduro has put his thumb on the scale,” Sagás said. “He controls not only every branch of government, the legislature, the supreme court of Venezuela, he controls the National Electoral Council. So, the police, the military, the resources of the state to campaign against the opposition. So, even though there's an opposition, that opposition has not had a lot of room to maneuver.”

Sagás said the opposition’s window to prevail in this contested election is very short. Perhaps it’s only open for about a month.

And perhaps their only hope is that Venezuela’s ruling elites turn on the Maduro regime, perhaps under pressure from Venezuela’s regional trading partners.

“A lot of people are betting their careers on the survival of the regime, and those people are very well armed,” he said.